Asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock that captured the attention of both astronomers and the public, was initially feared to be on a crash course with Earth. With its potential to cause catastrophic damage, including destroying an entire city, the asteroid became known as a “city-killer.” However, recent updates from NASA have provided some relief, as the chances of the asteroid striking Earth have significantly diminished. While Earth is likely out of danger, the asteroid has found a new target — the moon.
A Close Call That’s Now a Near Miss
When Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected in December 2024, astronomers calculated a 3% chance that it could collide with Earth in 2032. These early predictions raised alarm bells, prompting intense observation and analysis. A 3% chance, though small, was enough to get the world’s attention as scientists, media, and the public all feared the possibility of a devastating impact.
However, after further scrutiny, NASA revised the asteroid’s projected trajectory. As of April 2025, the chance of it hitting Earth has been reduced to an almost negligible 0.001%. Thanks to several rounds of close observation, experts confirmed that this asteroid is not on a collision course with our planet.
But What About the Moon?
Despite Earth likely dodging a bullet, the moon is still at risk. Astronomer Andrew Rivkin, who led some of the recent observations, noted that the asteroid’s odds of hitting the moon have increased. Initially, the probability was estimated at 1.7%, but recent data has raised the chances to 3.8%. This was determined after a comprehensive five-hour observation conducted by Rivkin and his team, using the advanced capabilities of the James Webb Space Telescope.
The asteroid, which is roughly the size of a football field at about 60 meters across, has a significant chance of impacting the moon on December 22, 2032. While the risk is still relatively small, it’s not insignificant. If the asteroid does strike, it wouldn’t affect the moon’s orbit, experts assured, though it would leave behind a massive crater, offering scientists an unprecedented opportunity to study the aftermath.
What Would a Collision Mean?
If Asteroid 2024 YR4 were to hit the moon, it would create an impact event of considerable scientific interest. Unlike Earth, the moon lacks an atmosphere that would burn up such space objects, making it an ideal place for studying the effects of asteroid impacts. The impact would likely be large enough to generate a visible crater, which could be studied by telescopes and even space missions in the future. Astronomers are already preparing to monitor the event closely, using every tool at their disposal.
The possibility of such an impact raises intriguing questions about the moon’s surface and its ability to withstand high-velocity collisions. While the moon’s surface has experienced similar events in the distant past, this would be one of the largest recent impacts that could provide crucial data for scientists studying planetary defense, asteroid composition, and cratering dynamics.
The Road Ahead
Though the likelihood of a collision with Earth has dropped dramatically, the situation remains fluid. Rivkin and his colleagues plan to continue monitoring the asteroid’s trajectory, utilizing the Webb telescope to gather data throughout the year. This will help refine predictions, ensuring that the chance of an Earth impact stays at near zero or, perhaps, even vanishes entirely.
The next major observation is scheduled for May 2025, when the asteroid will come into closer proximity, and scientists will gather additional data before it travels back into the outer reaches of the solar system, out of observation range for several years.
Public Fascination and Continued Research
While many feared a catastrophic Earth impact, the growing interest in Asteroid 2024 YR4 has spurred both public fascination and scientific investigation. The idea of studying an asteroid’s impact on the moon has captured imaginations worldwide, drawing attention to the importance of asteroid research and planetary defense.
As scientists continue to observe and analyze the asteroid’s path, it serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of space objects and the need for continued vigilance. Although Earth appears safe, the potential impact on the moon presents an exciting, albeit rare, opportunity for exploration.
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s story is far from over, and as scientists continue their observations, we can expect to learn more about this celestial object and its place in our solar system. Whether it ends up hitting the moon or missing it altogether, this asteroid has already given the world a new reason to look up and pay attention to the ever-present dangers and wonders of space.